Bitcoin (BTC) scratched new lows below $73,000 on Tuesday as data shows troubling macroeconomic challenges bubbling below increasingly volatile markets. New data highlights tightening credit conditions, even as the US debt and borrowing costs stay elevated, and one analyst says this gap between credit pricing and credit market stress may define Bitcoin’s price trajectory for the upcoming months.
Key takeaways:
The ICE BofA US Corporate Option-Adjusted Spread is at 0.75, its lowest level since 1998.
US debt stands at $38.5 trillion, while the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.28%.
Bitcoin whale inflows to exchanges have risen, but the pace of onchain profit-taking is easing.
ICE BofA US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread. Source: Fred
Tight credit spreads contrast with rising economic strain
The ICE BofA Corporate Option-Adjusted Spread may act as a key macroeconomic signal for Bitcoin. The metric tracks the extra yield investors demand for holding the corporate bonds over US Treasurys. When spreads widen, it usually reflects stress in the credit markets.
Currently, the spreads are compressed, suggesting the risk is still underpriced. This is notable given the current market. US government debt reached $38.5 trillion at the end of January, and the 10-year Treasury yield, after briefly falling below 4% in October, has climbed back to 4.28%, which is keeping the present financial conditions tight.
US Corporate Index Option spread against Bitcoin. Source: Fred
In previous Bitcoin market cycles, including 2018, 2020 and 2022, BTC formed a local bottom only after the credit spreads began to widen. That process played out within a three-to-six-month delay, rather than an immediate effect.
In August 2025, Alphractal founder Joao Wedson argued that if liquidity tightens and credit spreads rise in the coming months, Bitcoin may enter another accumulation phase before the broader market stress becomes visible.
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