Chevron (NYSE: CVX) stock is hovering around an all-time high price after gaining 21.6% year to date at the time of this writing. The energy sector is booming due to rising oil prices and investor uncertainty. Some investors are gravitating toward heavy industries that are less vulnerable to artificial intelligence (AI) disruption — like oil and gas.
At around $185 per share, Chevron is knocking on the door of the $200-per-share milestone. But some investors may be worried Chevron is running up too far, too fast.
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Here’s what it would take for Chevron to keep soaring, and if the dividend stock is a buy now.
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Chevron is investing in low-carbon projects such as hydrogen, carbon capture and storage, and renewable fuels to diversify its portfolio. But the vast majority of its earnings still come from its upstream oil and gas segment.
To protect against downside risk and improve profitability even during periods of lower oil prices, Chevron has reduced its production costs through technological advancements and an emphasis on high-quality projects. On its latest earnings call (fourth quarter 2025), Chevron said it has reduced its break-even level for dividends and capital expenditures (capex) to just $50 per Brent crude oil barrel. This means that even at $50 Brent, Chevron can support its operations, long-term investments, and dividend.
In 2025, Chevron paid $12.8 billion in dividends, spent $17.3 billion on capex, and generated $16.5 billion in free cash flow (FCF). This means Chevron supported its dividend program with cash, which is especially impressive considering 2025 oil prices were the lowest annual average since 2020.
Even if Brent prices fell below $50, Chevron could still cut capex and buybacks or rely on its rock-solid balance sheet. Chevron finished 2025 with a…
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