Pro Traders Anticipate Low Odds of a Bitcoin Rally Toward $78,000

Key takeaways:

Professional traders remain cautious, pricing low odds for a Bitcoin breakout to $78,000 despite recent ETF inflows.

US and Israel-Iran war and soft US labor data offset momentum in Bitcoin ETFs.

Bitcoin options: 17% chance of breaking $78,000

Bitcoin (BTC) reclaimed the $70,000 mark again on Wednesday. However, repeated failed attempts to break above $74,000 over the last five weeks have fueled skepticism. The ongoing US and Israel-Iran war, coupled with disappointing US labor numbers, has only added to the cautious outlook.

Traders are now evaluating whether recent inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) signal an imminent bullish breakout.

US-listed Bitcoin ETFs daily net flows, USD. Source: Farside Investors

While US-listed Bitcoin ETFs saw $414 million in net inflows between Monday and Tuesday, this was insufficient to offset the $576 million in net outflows recorded the previous Thursday and Friday.

Data from the derivatives market suggests that professional traders are skeptical of a significant rally before the end of the month.

Bitcoin call options for March 27 at Deribit. Source: Deribit by Coinbase

Bitcoin call options on Deribit for March 27, which target a $78,000 strike price, traded at $704 on Wednesday. This pricing indicates that whales and market makers see less than a 17% chance of Bitcoin gaining roughly 12% from its current levels.

This cautious outlook is also visible in the futures market, where demand for leveraged long positions remains stagnant.

Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch

The annualized premium (basis rate) for monthly Bitcoin futures has stayed below the 4% neutral threshold. Notably, this metric failed to shift even after a 16% four-day rally that peaked with a retest of $74,000 on March 4.

Current onchain and derivatives data point toward indifference rather than an expectation of a sharp crash.