Bitcoin (BTC) fell to a four-month low of $74,500 on April 7, and data suggests that the price may not have bottomed yet.
Investors dumped risk assets after US President Donald Trump doubled down on his plan to impose global tariffs over the weekend, triggering a $9.5 trillion wipeout in global equity markets.
BTC/USD vs. TOTAL crypto market cap, S&P 500, and MSCI World index one-year performance. Source: TradingView
Growing calls for a US recession have spooked risk investors while leaving crypto market participants wondering how low can the Bitcoin price go in the near future.
Bitcoin eyes decline toward “Saylor’s average entry“ level
Bitcoin is currently testing a critical technical level—the 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA)—which has historically acted as a dividing line between bull and bear phases.
According to market analyst Ted Pillows and numerous other chartists, Bitcoin must reclaim the EMA, currently near $77,500, to avoid a deeper correction.
BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView/Ted Pillows
If BTC fails to close back above it, Pillows warns of a potential decline toward the $69,000–$70,000 range, which aligns with the 2021 cycle highs. A further drop to $67,000, the average entry-level of Strategy’s Michael Saylor, also remains a possibility.
Source: @ChrisTradesXYZ
Bitcoin “max pain” target is near $69,000
Bitcoin appeared to have found short-term support at around $74,000, which corresponds to a notable cost-basis cluster where over 50,000 BTC are held.
Glassnode’s UTXO realized price distribution (URPD) heatmap shows this is the first major cost-basis cluster below $80,000. These holders raised their average buy price until March 10, then stopped moving coins—showing confidence, not panic.
Bitcoin URPD heatmap. Source: Glassnode
Investors hold around 175,000 BTC in the $74,000–$70,000 range, creating a strong buffer zone. The largest cluster sits at $71,600, with 41,000 BTC concentrated there, making it the likely next support if $74,000 breaks.
Related: Black Monday 2.0? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
Meanwhile, Glassnode’s Short-Term…
..
