Key takeaways:
Bitcoin market data shows that pro traders are avoiding risk and paying extra to protect against a price drop.
Gold is hitting record highs, but Bitcoin remains stuck as investors favor traditional safe havens.
Bitcoin (BTC) rose 1.5% following a retest of the $86,000 level on Sunday as traders weigh the risks of a US federal government shutdown by Saturday. This week features multiple high-stakes catalysts, including earnings reports from global tech giants and the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision on Wednesday.
Despite gold hitting record highs, Bitcoin traders remain cautious. Derivatives metrics suggest skepticism regarding further gains; demand for leveraged bullish positions is weak, and professional traders are currently pricing in higher odds of a negative price swing in the options markets.
Bitcoin two-month futures basis rate. Source: laevitas.ch
The annualized BTC futures premium (basis rate) stood at 5% on Monday. This level is barely enough to compensate for the longer settlement periods inherent in these derivatives contracts. Typically, when traders turn bullish, this indicator jumps above 10%. Conversely, bearish periods can cause the rate to turn negative. Overall, market sentiment has remained neutral-to-bearish for the past two weeks.
Bitcoin 30-day options delta skew (put-call) at Deribit. Source: laevitas.ch
Similarly, the BTC options delta skew reached 12% on Monday. This indicates that put (sell) options are trading at a premium, reflecting a strong reluctance among traders to hold downside exposure. In a neutral market, this indicator usually fluctuates from -6% to +6%. The last time the skew reached these levels was Dec. 1, 2025, when Bitcoin plummeted to $83,900 from $91,500 in just a few hours.
Bitcoin lags as gold surges amid rising US debasement fears
Attributing Bitcoin’s bearish momentum solely to the US fiscal standoff seems counterintuitive, especially as the S&P 500 climbed 0.6% on Monday. Meanwhile, gold surged to $5,100 for the first time. This rally has led analysts to wonder if a “debasement trade” is accelerating. While the US dollar losing…
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