The total Bitcoin (BTC) supply in profit stands at 60.6% on Thursday, continuing to move within a range historically associated with market cycle resets. The metric previously dropped to 50.8% on Feb. 5, its lowest level since January 2, 2023, leaving a large share of holders at breakeven or at a loss.
Similar conditions in the past cycles have preceded strong upside moves. In January 2023, BTC traded at $16,682 when profitability levels were comparable at 51%, before rallying 655% to $126,000 in 2025.
A similar setup occurred in March 2020, when the total supply in profit fell below 50% as BTC traded at $6,500, ahead of a move to $69,000 in 2021.
Bitcoin profitability returns to prior market cycle base levels
Over the past five years, the 50–60% profitability range has repeatedly marked periods where a large portion of holders sat near the BTC cost basis. That compresses unrealized gains across the network and reduces the incentive to sell into weakness.
Bitcoin Supply in Profit (%). Source: CryptoQuant
It is important to note that the metric does not pinpoint a price bottom. It outlines a zone where long-term accumulation has led to high returns while the downside sell pressure has eased.
In past cycles, Bitcoin price bottoms were formed when the long-term holder net unrealized profit/loss (LTH-NUPL) turned negative, as seen during the 2015, 2018, and 2022 bear markets. This phase marked a period where the long-term investors were holding at a loss.
However, the current LTH-NUPL reading is near 0.40, which means that the long-term holders are still comfortably in profit, even as the overall supply profitability has dropped near market cycle lows.
Bitcoin LTH-NUPL data. Source: CryptoQuant
This gap highlights a shift in the market environment. A growing share of Bitcoin supply is now held by corporate entities and spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which collectively control close to 15.8% of the circulating supply, i.e., 3,319,677 BTC.
These participants typically operate with a longer holding period and lower sensitivity to short-term price swings.
As a result, the profitability compression across the BTC market…
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