US equities and crypto markets shifted dramatically on April 9 after US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on his reciprocal tariffs, except for China. Bitcoin (BTC) price responded by surging by 5% in less than an hour, reclaiming the $83,000 level which was last seen on April 6.
While the S&P 500 gained 8%, Bitcoin derivative metrics have yet to turn bullish as traders remain cautious about changes in US long-term government bonds.
Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch
The BTC futures premium briefly rose above the neutral 5% threshold but failed to sustain its momentum. Investors were skeptical about whether the US Federal Reserve would lower interest rates throughout the year. However, this indicator has moved away from the 3% level observed on March 31, signaling growing confidence among Bitcoin bulls after several failed attempts to push prices below $76,000.
Bitcoin traders worry after 10-year yield volatility
Traders’ hesitancy can partly be attributed to the April 9 release of minutes from the Federal Reserve Committee (FOMC) meeting held on March 18-19. The minutes highlighted concerns about stagflation. According to CME FEDWatch Tool data, the probability of the Federal Reserve reducing interest rates below 4% by Sept. 17 dropped from 97.6% on April 8 to 69.7% on April 9.
Traders are worried about the implications of a weakened 10-year US Treasury yield. This decline reflects reduced confidence in the government’s ability to manage its growing debt. Economist Peter Boockvar, editor of The Boock Report, explained to Yahoo Finance: “We can draw a line at around the 4.40% level in the 10-year yield.” He added that investors fear “foreigners will continue to reduce their holdings of US Treasurys.”
US 10-year Treasury yield. Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph
When bond yields rise, it indicates that buyers are demanding higher returns from the US government. As a result, the cost of rolling over debt increases, potentially creating a negative cycle that weakens the US dollar. This uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment has also been reflected in…
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