Bitcoin (BTC) gained up to 3% Sunday, but some traders refused to believe that the BTC price crash was over.
Key points:
Bitcoin price comparisons warn that new macro lows are due if the 2022 bear market continues to repeat.
Moving averages and the cost basis of the US spot Bitcoin ETFs are in focus.
Analysis says that a carbon copy of 2022 is not a certainty.
Bitcoin capitulation “hasn’t happened yet”
Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD crossing $71,000, now up 20% versus Friday’s 15-month lows.
BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
As the weekly close neared, Bitcoin added characteristic volatility, while market participants remained highly skeptical that the rebound would last.
Uploading a chart to X which compared current BTC price action to the 2022 bear market, independent analyst Filbfilb had no good news for bulls.
“Im not going to try to dress it up any way other than how it looks,” he commented alongside a chart showing spot price versus the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $95,300.
BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Filbfilb/X
Analyst Tony Severino held similar ideas, contributing multiple price indicators and concluding that new lows were all but guaranteed.
Four more for your foresight https://t.co/psM23MQiI2 pic.twitter.com/Qu0Pt5QeUz
— Tony Severino, CMT (@TonySeverinoCMT) February 8, 2026
“$BTC final capitulation hasn’t happened yet,” trader BitBull agreed, like Filbfilb referencing 2022.
“A real bottom will form below $50,000 level where most of the ETF buyers will be underwater.” US spot Bitcoin ETF data. Source: Checkonchain
The US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) currently have an average buy-in cost of $82,000, per data from monitoring resource Checkonchain.
BTC price deja vu continues
Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on a key bear market feature for Bitcoin based on two other trend lines: the 200-week simple (SMA) and exponential moving averages.
Related: What crashed Bitcoin? Three theories behind BTC’s trip below $60K
Together, they form a “cloud” of support between $58,000 and $68,000.
In one of his latest market takes at the…
..
